Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Lubna Shafi ¹
• Shilpi Jain ²
• Praveen Agarwal ³
• Pervaiz Iqbal ⁴
• Aadil Rashid Sheergojri ⁴

¹ 5Department of Mathematics & Actuarial Science, B.S. Abdur Rahman Crescent Institute of Science & Technology, Chennai, India

² Poornima College of Engineering

³ Department of Mathematics, Anand International College of Engineering, Jaipur, 303012, Rajasthan, India

⁴ Department of Mathematics & Actuarial Science, B.S. Abdur Rahman Crescent Institute of Science & Technology, Chennai, India

Abstract

Fuzzy time series forecasting is an approach for dealing with uncertainty in time series data that uses fuzzy logic. The hesitant fuzzy set theory emphasizes the chances of capturing fuzziness and uncertainty due to randomness better than the classic fuzzy set theory. This study aims to improve the previously identified hesitant fuzzy time series forecasting models by including various degrees of hesitation to improve forecasting performance. The goal is to deal with the issue of identifying a common membership grade when several fuzzification methods are available to fuzzify time series data.The proposed method utilizes trapezoidal and bell-shaped fuzzy membership functions for constructing hesitant fuzzy sets.Ahesitant fuzzy weighted averaging operator is then applied to the hesitant fuzzy elements to create fuzzy logical relations.The suggested technique is employed to forecast enrollment in the University of Alabama and cancer incidence rates in India. The efficiency of the proposed forecasting approach is determined by rigorously comparing it to various computational fuzzy time series forecasting methods in terms of error measurements like root mean square error, average forecasting error, and mean absolute deviation. The validity of the proposed forecasting model is verified by using correlation coefficients, coefficients of determination, tracking signals, and performance parameters. The significance of improved accuracy in forecasted results is confirmed as well using the two-tailed t-test. The results of the study revealed that the enhanced hesitant fuzzy time series model is more effective and accurate in forecasting the university enrolment of Alabama and the cancer incidence rates of India.

Keywords

• Fuzzy time series
• hesitant fuzzy sets
• Trapezoidal and bell-shaped membership function
• Cancer Incidence rates – India

Main Subjects

• Hesitant fuzzy sets and their variants